Concordancia entre calendarios agrícolas ancestrales y variabilidad de la precipitación (2010 2024) en las parroquias Dureno, El Eno y Pacayacu, cantón Lago Agrio, provincia de Sucumbíos

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of this research was to identify the level of agreement between ancestral agricultural calendars and observed precipitation variability during the 2010 2024 period in the Dureno, El Eno, and Pacayacu parishes (Lago Agrio Canton, Sucumbíos Province, Ecuador). A mixed-methods approach with a descriptive scope was employed, utilizing semi-structured interviews with farmers and an analysis of historical precipitation records. This data allowed for a comparison between the agricultural periods reported by farmers and observed rainfall patterns using a Temporal Agreement Index. The results showed a high level of agreement in the Dureno and Pacayacu parishes and a moderate level in El Eno. Additionally, significant precipitation variability was identified across the years of the study period; this finding aligns with farmers' perceptions regarding reduced rainfall predictability and the need to adjust certain agricultural practices. The study concludes that ancestral agricultural calendars remain a useful tool for agricultural planning, although their application could be strengthened by the complementary use of up-to-date meteorological data.