Incidencia del cash-flow en la probabilidad de quiebra en las empresas del sector A, de la provincia Cotopaxi de Ecuador, períodos 2019 2023

Abstract

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of cash flow on the probability of bankruptcy for companies in Sector A, Cotopaxi province, during the period 2019-2023. The methodology employed to achieve these objectives is a quantitative, correlational, and longitudinal study applied to five companies using Altman's Z-Score prediction formula based on data provided by SUPERCIAS. The results show a strong positive correlation of 0.7845, demonstrating that a decline in operating cash flow negatively impacts liquidity and profitability, while simultaneously increasing debt. The study concludes that cash flow has a significant impact on a company's health and survival; operating without generating free cash critically reduces the Z-Score and imminently condemns the business to insolvency. The key recommendation in this scenario is to establish cash flow as the primary KPI for companies and to promptly optimize the cash conversion cycle to avoid over-indebtedness due to operational inefficiencies.