Transición Energética En El Ecuador, Una Perspectiva De Largo Plazo.

Abstract

Abstract: The energy transition has become a cornerstone of sustainable development strategies, particularly for economies highly exposed to climate variability or those significantly vulnerable to fiscal constraints. This research examines the energy transition in Ecuador from a long-term, structural perspective, aiming to identify the key stylized facts that have shaped the evolution of the national energy system. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study provides a descriptive analysis of core energy indicators, alongside a review of economic, fiscal, and institutional conditions. The findings indicate that the expansion of hydroelectric power generation increased the share of renewables and partially reduced the reliance on thermal generation; however, it also heightened the system's exposure to climate variability. Furthermore, the persistence of energy subsidies and institutional weaknesses hindered the diversification of the energy matrix and progress toward a more resilient energy system. In conclusion, the energy transition in Ecuador must be understood as a gradual, comprehensive process that integrates environmental sustainability with fiscal stability and institutional strengthening.