Determinar la probabilidad de que los clientes de la empresa DISMEDEL situada en Quito-Ecuador no cumplan con los pagos programados, a través de la aplicación de un modelo probabilístico dentro del período 2009-2012

Abstract

This thesis is based on an econometric model analysis, which aims to present practical solutions to business Dismedel -a company dedicated to marketing and production of bed linen. As for marketing their products , customers receive credit on their purchases exceed , this implies that the customer risk factor is high, so, establish a way to determine the behavioral profile help managers to take action caution with clients whose tendency is the failure of your payments at the agreed time, through the analysis of an econometric model. The first chapter is a brief description of the current situation in the textile sector; gives the reader a glimpse of what is currently happening in Ecuador regarding the development of this sector. In the second chapter focuses on historical analysis and diagnostics company Dismedel to study its mission, vision, goals setting, the operating structure and SWOT analysis conducted jointly by the author and those who make up the company. The third chapter is based on the estimation of the econometric model, through which will check if the hypothesis is true; and finally concluded that gender is not a significant factor in terms of compliance, or non-compliance-in credit granted to customers; shows that the relevant variables are related to the geographic location and the respective family burden. The model used in this research is explained by variables such as gender, education level, socioeconomic status, family responsibilities, geographical location, etc., upon fulfillment of payments on the agreed dates. It is expected that gender is not a significant factor in meeting the payment of the claim that the relevant variables are affected by geographic location, family responsibilities and age of customers