El efecto del gasto público sobre las emisiones de CO2 en Ecuador durante 1971-2010

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of public spending on CO2 emissions in Ecuador for the period 1971-2010, linking public expenditure and the different control variables as imports, exports, national income, gross value added of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors, with emissions. First, the ordinary minimal square model and cointegration techniques were used in order to find the relationship in the long term between the emissions and the public spending. Secondly, the causality between the mentioned variables was found by using the Granger test. Finally, the error correction model was used to find the short term relationshp between the dependent variable and the public spending. The results show the presence of evidence of a short term relationship between CO2 emissions and public spending. Granger´s test showed that there is bidirectional causality between the public spending and emissions in significancy level of 10%; if all of the variables are included in the model, the causality is found in a significancy level of 1%.