Relación del producto interno bruto (PIB), gasto público y el déficit de la balanza comercial en la economía ecuatoriana en el período 1980-2012.

Abstract

The main objective of this research is based on examining the relationship between the principal economic variables; gross domestic product, commercial balance and public expenditure in the Ecuadorian economy, taking account the statistical information that exists in Ecuador's Central Bank and its web page. To achieve this goal, we use the linear model with ARIMA method, the dependent variable being GDP, and the independent or explanatory variables commercial balance and public expenditure. The results of the model show a strong correlation with the current situation and the policies of the current government as to increase public spending and safeguard policies and protectionism of the domestic market. In this sense, we believe appropriate policies adopted and is necessary for preventive management measures taken especially spending as a bad destination can get some other beneficial consequences for Ecuador.