Análisis de los factores que influyen en la inflación en Ecuador durante el periodo 1970-2012 desde un enfoque monetarista

Abstract

The objective that has been raised in this research is to study through an econometric model the factors influencing inflation of the Ecuadorian economy during the period 1970-2012 from a monetarist approach. The main argument for choosing the monetarist approach as a theoretical framework to explain the inflationary process in Ecuador, it is because even before dollarization, the country had high inflation, while thereafter, inflation has fallen to currently, it is indicating that the country's inflation may be influenced by the amount of money. Apart from money growth, it is considered the effect of public spending and the interest rate on the estimated model. To meet this objective, the evolution of the variables in question is analyzed and then an econometric model with which 51% of the variation is concluded in the inflation rate are explained by variations in the amount of money estimated circulating in the economy, government spending and the interest rate. As for the main variable of interest, money, it is contrary to the expected result, since the sign is negative, indicating that the amount of money circulating in the Ecuadorian economy (the analysis period) is not the cause of inflation