Efectos socioeconómicos de la COVID-19 en el Ecuador: Un análisis de las exportaciones y el desempleo, periodo 2017-2021

Abstract

Abstract: This research shows a descriptive analysis of the effect of the decrease in exports on unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador, taking as reference data from the period 2017-2021; the methodology used was quantitative, focusing on the economically active population (EAP). For the analysis of the information,a multiple linear regression using ordinary least squares (OLS)was performed, the econometric model contains data on the unemployment rate, exports of the agricultural and manufacturing sector, nominal GDP,and the inflation rate. The results obtained show that exports and unemployment have a negative relationship and therefore as the value of exports increases, the unemployment rate decreases. However, the fall in exports due to the health crisis was not the only factor that increased the unemployment rate; it was the total or partial closure of economic activities due to health restrictions implemented by the government that contributedto the increase in the number of unemployed people in the country.