Modelización de variables macroeconómicas relacionadas con el crecimiento económico para la economía ecuatoriana periodo 1960-2020

Abstract

Abstract: Ecuador has faced significant obstacles in its economic growth, highlighting the lack of diversification in its exports and a marked dependence on the export of raw materials. This situation has generated considerable fluctuations in state income and growing public debt, thus preventing the achievement of sustained growth, and leading to an increasing deficit. This scenario has led the country to acquire high levels of debt, hindering the effective channeling of resources towards strategic sectors. The research focused on analyzing the macroeconomic variables linked to Ecuadorian economic growth in the period 1960-2020. Finding a positive association between exports and GDP, as well as a bidirectional relationship in the Granger sense between these variables. A positive association was also identified between exports and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (FBKF), with a causal relationship from exports to this investment. However, no relationship was observed between dollarization and the other variables. These findings provide valuable insights that underline the urgency of implementing strategic measures to drive sustainable economic growth.