Curva de Kuznets Ambiental en Ecuador periodo 1970 2018

Abstract

Abstract:The main objective of this work is to determine the relationship between economic growth measured through the behavior of GDP, and environmental degradation measured through energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Ecuador during the period 1970 - 2018, considering the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, through the behavior of the aforementioned variables, all of these taken in per capita terms. Simultaneously, an exposition of the economic and environmental theory is presented, which are the theoretical support to verify the fulfillment of the CKA hypothesis. Under Johansen's vector error correction (VEC) methodology that helps to know if there is a short-term relationship between the variables. In addition, the forecast of emissions until the year 2022 is presented, under the methods of Holt Winters, VAR, ARIMA. At the end of the investigation, a positive relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP was found, discarding the CE variable because it did not present significance in the model. Demonstrating the relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions in the short term.