Análisis de patrones espaciales de expansión urbana en la administración zonal Valle de los Chillosdel cantón Quito y propuesta prospectiva de crecimiento

Abstract

Abstract: The generation of prospective scenarios is fundamental in the development of a territorial ordering plan since it allowsgeneratingoptimal strategies that start from experience towards a future that we can approach thanks to geoinformatic tools that give us a clear vision of the transformations that will take place in the territory. This research proposes to prospect the urban growth of the Valle de los Chillos Zonal Administration in the Quito canton, through the analysis of spatial patterns of urban expansion and the use of the SACcity application. The research stems from the study of the past through the analysis of satellite images for the years 1996, 2004, 2012, 2020 from which the evolution of the urbansprawl was studied and its relationship with respect to aspects of sustainability from which three spatial patterns were determined. That whereused to generate the prospective model and two simulations towards the years 2032 and 2044,a trend scenario shown in which a considerable affectsareas of ecological interest and an optimal scenario that develops under ideal conditions.