Evaluación del riesgo de liquidez mediante simulación Monte Carlo en la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Riobamba Ltda. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This research paper evaluates the liquidity risk of an Ecuadorian savings and credit cooperative through the application of Monte Carlo simulation to its critical cash flow variables, taking into account historical financial information for the period 2020 2024. The study adopts a quantitative approach, together with a descriptive and exploratory scope, incorporating the analysis of the Liquidity Risk Index, the structure of deposits and loans, the delinquency of the portfolio, and the time bands established by the SEPS. By generating several probabilistic scenarios, the probability of liquidity risk was estimated in the short term, identifying the variables with the greatest impact on risk exposure. By generating several probabilistic scenarios, the probability of liquidity risk was estimated in the short term, identifying the variables with the greatest impact on risk exposure. The results show that the Monte Carlo simulation is an effective tool to complement traditional financial analysis, thus allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of liquidity risk and providing essential information for strategic decision-making and strengthening financial management within the Ecuadorian cooperative sector.