Cambio climático y dependencia de los recursos naturales: una aproximación empírica a la Curva Ambiental de Kuznets con enfoque en el recurso hídrico

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the validity of the Kuznets Environmental Curve (KEC) by incorporating water resources as an environmental variable in South American countries with high dependence on natural resources during the period 2010 2022. Therefore, two panel data models corrected with PCSE (Panel Corrected Standard Errors) were estimated, as required by tests for autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and cross-sectional dependence. The results show positive coefficients for the linear term of income (GDP per capita and total GDP) and negative coefficients for the quadratic term, consistent with an inverted U-shape. However, due to the nature of the semi-logarithmic econometric model, it was not possible to calculate the inflection point; therefore, the upward phase of water withdrawal within the observed range cannot be confirmed. Precipitation and environmental taxes reduce water withdrawal; temperature has a negative and temporary effect explained by Andean snowmelt. Exports of goods and services show a negative impact. It is concluded that the validity of the CAK for water resources in South America is partial and inconclusive, so it is recommended that future research be conducted using log-log models.