Estimación del factor de calibración del módulo de predicción de accidentes del HSM en carreteras principales del cantón Loja

Abstract

The road can affect the frequency and severity of traffic accidents. Considering that, one of the tools that help to design roads with lower probability of accidents, is the prediction of accidents. In this scenario, the purpose of this thesis is to calibrate the accident prediction module of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). This module must be calibrated locally, because it has been developed with statistics of traffic accidents from the USA, Norway and Switzerland. To calibrate this module, traffic accident data on the access roads to the city of Loja (Ecuador) during the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 was used, and infrastructure data (geometry, lighting, access, etc.) too. In each road the calibration factor has been estimated for two zones: rural two-lane and suburban. The mean value obtained in the rural roads was 0,19 and in the suburban areas was 1,24. These results can be used on similar roads or can be used in the calibration process on other roads.